Brilliant, thank you for the analysis. Like you, I am hard-pressed to find voices making bold claims about AGI or even the future of current LLM approaches coming from people without a serious incentive like the ones you’ve outlined. I think it’s just good epistemic practice: explore the motivation prior to forecast. Also, interestingly, I find more prominent AI skeptics lacking an agenda, which makes me even more eager to listen.
Brilliant, thank you for the analysis. Like you, I am hard-pressed to find voices making bold claims about AGI or even the future of current LLM approaches coming from people without a serious incentive like the ones you’ve outlined. I think it’s just good epistemic practice: explore the motivation prior to forecast. Also, interestingly, I find more prominent AI skeptics lacking an agenda, which makes me even more eager to listen.